Goldman Sachs also said that after the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear aCrude oil market valuegreement, its oil price forecast of $85/barrel has upside risks; assuming that the oil supply will be reduced by 500,000 barrels/day by the end of the year and be affected by Iran’s sanctions, it will support the oil price to rise by $2/barrel.
International crude oil prices have been affected by various factors, and after falling for 2 and 7 consecutively, they plunged again. As of 6:00 today, WTI crude oil fell below US$50/barrel, setting a new monthly low at US$465/barrel; Brent crude oil also hit a new monthly low, falling below US$58/barrel.
The main components of oil sands are water, clay, asphalt and petroleum. Oil producers can only use pipelines to separate oil from impurities and then blend with light oil. Even after blending, Canadian crude oil still has many impurities and high viscosity, and the requirements for refining are relatively complicated. Therefore, under normal circumstances, the price of Canadian WCS crude oil is lower than that of US crude oil, and it is even more incomparable with the prices of Brent crude oil and OPEC crude oil.
Kilduff said, I think this may escalate quickly. If Saudi Arabia wants to retaliate, oil is clearly its weapon. If they are economically sanctioned, other countries will also be harmed. He said that the world may see an unprecedented period of instability in Saudi Arabia.
Iranian Vice President Jahangiri said on July that in response to US sanctions, Iran intends to allow private companies to export crude oil. He also reminded other OPEC members not to try to fill up the vacancy of Iranian crude oil in the international market by increasing crude oil production, otherwise they will pay the price. Jahangiri said that the United States is trying to block the export of Iranian crude oil. Of course we must defeat this attempt... The Iranian government has countermeasures... We are convinced that as much crude oil as Iran wants to export, it can export as much crude oil.
Darok said that the United Kingdom currently has some specific ideas for easing the situation, but the negotiations have not yet achieved results. We are having high-level talks with France and Crude oil market valueGermany, which have been going on for several weeks. Some progress has been made in the negotiations, but the final result has not yet been reached. Hope there will be results in the remaining few days.
As April is about to end, reviewing the crude oil market in April, we can find that the main driving force for the crude oil market comes from the turbulence in the Middle East and the changes in the Sino-US trade conflict. In contrast, the changes in US crude oil inventories and The changes in output brought about relatively weak changes to the trend of crude oil. And as May is approaching, it is reported that Trump will withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement in May. The strongest panic in the Middle East is about to detonate. Crude oil prices are likely to usher in a wave of explosions, but according to the latest news, The benefit of crude oil in May may not stop at the Iranian nuclear agreement.
In fact, since the beginning of this year, the value of the Indian rupee has been continuously depreciating, while the price of oil has been rising, India has to import a large amount of oil, which has made India's economy even more unbearable. According to reports, Indian refiners and the Modi government are considering various measures to reduce oil import spending, including: hedging or using India’s domestic oil stocks. But it seems that these measures have not worked, and the country's oil demand is still growing.
Given that Draghi's previous dovish remarks in the monetary policy statement once caused the euro to plummet, the market is also concerned about whether it will release a clearer policy signal in this speech. It is worth noting that if Draghi reveals signs of a weakening recovery, it will make the process of ending QE more complicated.